Does the 2021 New Year Celebration Affect the Positive Increase of Covid-19 in Jakarta and the estimated future cases?

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Hay. Back again on my blog. Hopefully you guys are not bored with my writing so far. This time I want to discuss Covid-19 in West Java.

West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil on January 5, 2021,
conducted a rapid antigen test to 3,768 tourists on vacation on the holiday season of Christmas 2020 and New Year 2021. From the start date 20 Desemeber (2020) to January 2 (2021), approximately 3,700 tourists were sampled using the rapid antigen test and those who reacted positively were 65 people.

Based on these findings, there is always an increase in COVID-19 cases from tourism mobility. So it can be concluded that the long holiday days Christmas 2020 and New Year 2021 have a profound impact an increase in positive cases in West Java in early 2021.


Positive Covid-19 Data in West Java 2 Weeks Before and After New Year 2021

Sebelum

Sesudah

987

1,504

1,132

1,167

1,052

1,232

716

1,079

925

1,100

903

1,470

702

1,416

903

1,824

601

1,731

892

1,468

403

1,475

1,329

1,540

1,233

1,755

1,024

2,201



Above is a positive case data in West Java 2 weeks before and after the new year celebration 2021. We can process the data above, so that we can find out whether the existence of a new year celebration 2021 has an impact on the number of positive cases of Covid-19 in West Java. 

Here is one way to process the data above, namely with Descriptive Statistics.



   Before



After


Mean

914,4285714

Mean

1497,285714

Standard Error

66,38488461

Standard Error

82,73600466

Median

914

Median

1472,5

Mode

903

Mode

#N/A

Standard Deviation

248,3894939

Standard Deviation

309,569783

Sample Variance

61697,34066

Sample Variance

95833,45055

Kurtosis

0,15395779

Kurtosis

0,64231017

Skewness

-0,373541339

Skewness

0,671976148

Range

926

Range

1122

Minimum

403

Minimum

1079

Maximum

1329

Maximum

2201

Sum

12802

Sum

20962

Count

14

Count

14



Analysis :

No.

Data Description

Before

After

1.

Mean

On average, there were 914.4285714 positive people Covid-19 in West Java.

On average, there were 1497.285714 positive people Covid-19 in West Java.

2.

Kurtosis

0.15395779 Data tends to be normal.

0.64231017 Data tends to be pointed or tend to be homogeneous.

3.

Skewness

-0.373541339 < 0 slope distribution of data is rather inclined to the right.

0.671976148> 0 slope distribution of data rather leaning to the left.

4.

Minimum

At least a positive person Covid-19 in West Java is 403 people.

At least a positive person Covid-19 in West Java is 1,079 people.

5.

Maximum

Most of the positive people of Covid-19 in West Java are 1,329 people.

The most positive people of Covid-19 in West Java are 2,201 people.


From the analysis of the data above, it can be concluded that the influence of the New Year celebration 2021 on the increase in Positive Covid-19 cases in West Java. When compared to a positive case two weeks before with the new year 2021, a positive case after the new year is more rapidly increasing than before the new year. With a comparison of the daily highest positive cases between before and after the new year is 1,329: 2,201 people. Plus after the new year celebration until January 14, 2021, the positive Covid-19 case in West Java has never touched a number below 1,000. This shows a positive Covid-19 case in West Java is very high.

Based on the Skewness value of the data processing above, Covid-19 positive case data in West Java before the new year celebration 2021 the slope of the distribution of data leaning to the right. In contrast, the data on Covid-19 positive cases in West Java after the new year celebration 2021 the slope of the distribution of data leaning to the left.

The addition of the Covid-19 case in West Java continues to surge after two weeks of Christmas and New Year holidays. During January 2021, the positive Covid-19 case in West Java was never below the 1,000 figure. Then followed by the city of Bekasi (211 cases), Bekasi Regency (160 cases), Sukabumi Regency (152 cases), Karawang Regency (144 cases), Ciamis Regency (100 cases), Bandung City (53 cases), Cimahi City (44 cases) and other cities or districts.

From the explanation above, it can be concluded that the influence of the new year celebration 2021 on the increase in positive Covid-19 cases in West Java. Plus after the new year celebration until January 14, 2021, the positive Covid-19 case in West Java has never touched a number below 1,000. This shows a positive Covid-19 case in West Java is very high.

Okay guys, see you on my next blog  If there are criticisms and suggestions, you can comment in the comments column.  thanks.

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